Is an ALP open ticket a gift to Dutton?
The ALP’s decision to run an open ticket in MacNamara (i.e. not directing voters how to direct their preferences on the printed how-to-vote cards) has created the usual heat around …
Putting your money where your data is
Our PoliCast model has consumed quite a bit of brain power and supercomputer time. Now, two days out from the election, it’s fun to wonder whether the statistics sees something …
PoliCast update 01/05/2025
For the final PoliCast before polling day, the polls have caught up with the Coalition. The Hung-o-Meter is now below 50%! The outlook for Labor is now majority government by …
PoliCast update 23/04/2025
PoliCast results 23/04/2025: This week the journalistic narrative has all been about a softening of Liberal support, i.e. how shit the Liberal campaign seems to be. The polls do seem …
PoliCast update 11/04/2025
By Dr Colin Jacobs The Coalition have by all accounts had a poor week culminating in a new housing plan and re-emphasising Nuclear Australia. We will see this week whether …
PoliCast prediction 7/4/2025: ALP Minority Government
Here we present a new model, PoliCast, that aims to convert polling numbers into realistic seat outcomes.
Who’s ahead in the polls?
With the next Australian federal election just around the corner, there are wide variety of different opinion polls out there trying to gauge which way the political winds are blowing. …
How the Greens lose Prahran (with difficulty)
Labor’s decision not to contest the Prahran by-election has been called cowardly by some, but in the hard scrabble of politics you sometimes need to pick your battles. Since 2014, …
Renters are angry. Will they flex their political muscle?
Houses have represented more than just a roof over the heads of generations of Australians. Since Menzies encouraged the parents of baby boomers to aspire to become “little capitalists” through …
The war in Gaza (and in the ALP)
The October 7 attacks and subsequent war in Gaza have stirred deep feelings all over the world and Australia is no exception, with few aspects of Australian public life completely …