Our PoliCast model has consumed quite a bit of brain power and supercomputer time. Now, two days out from the election, it’s fun to wonder whether the statistics sees something the crowd doesn’t.
Comparing our predictions to the Sportsbet odds, here are my top picks for under-priced races.
| Sportsbet says | We say | |
| Most underpriced seat counts: | ||
| Coalition 56 – 60 Seats | $4.20 | $2.41 |
| Coalition 61 – 65 Seats | $4.00 | $1.88 |
| ALP 71 – 75 Seats | $3.60 | $1.63 |
| Greens 4 seats | $3.40 | $2.02 |
| Individual races | ||
| ALP in Casey | $8.00 | $1.35 |
| Greens in Brisbane | $2.75 | $1.16 |
| Libs in Ligniari | $2.20 | $1.00 |
| Libs in Paterson | $5.75 | $4.02 |
| Government | ||
| ALP Minority | $2.40 | $1.57 |
We’ll be back next week to see what $100 split amongst these bets would have (hypothetically?) returned.