PoliCast update 01/05/2025

For the final PoliCast before polling day, the polls have caught up with the Coalition. The Hung-o-Meter is now below 50%!

The outlook for Labor is now majority government by the skin of their teeth. They may well just squeak in or need to recruit a speaker from the crossbench, or shore up one or two independents, though 77+ seats is still reasonably probable.

Distribution of ALP likely seat count across 4000 realisations.

The Coalition are pretty cooked. Even 69 seats is a real outlier.

Distribution of Coalition likely seat count across 4000 realisations.

Distribution of Greens likely seat count across 4000 realisations.

A crossbench of an historic 15 is the most likely outcome, with the Greens holding steady on 4. (Though this may be an underestimate – a weakness of the model).

Size of the likely crossbenches across 4000 realisations.

Here’s our most likely parliament: 75 seats for Labor. 4 Greens, 11 other crossbenchers, and the Coalition are runners-up with 60 seats.

The most likely parliament.

Finally, there are real chances for Coalition seats to flip to the Labor now. The Greens look very likely to hold their Brisbane gains.

Top 20 seats most likely to change hands.

Tune in next week for the post mortem!