PoliCast results 23/04/2025:
This week the journalistic narrative has all been about a softening of Liberal support, i.e. how shit the Liberal campaign seems to be. The polls do seem to reflect this story (although which is the chicken, and which the egg?), and so the PoliCast dial has shifted significantly this week. Only few weeks ago a majority government was nigh-impossible, now we predict a 23% chance of a an ALP majority. The Coalition’s chances are essentially zero given where the polls are at this point.
It’s interesting to revisit where party support is now that we’re mere days away from the Only Poll that Matters. The primary votes have shifted, but not much. The Coalition’s poll lead, long a source of dread amongst progressives everywhere, has almost finished evaporating. The net result: ALP -1.1%, Coalition -0.7%, Greens +1.0%.
As the below shows, about a quarter of the time the ALP are hitting the 75-seat threshold.
The Coalition would need a 4-sigma outlier to make it. This is possible, of course, if the polls are wrong. The polls can be wrong, though it’s what we have to work with.
The most likely parliament still has us with a minority government, with Labor needing 2 crossbenchers and a speaker to govern. This won’t be a big hurdle, just staring down the Greens would do, though no doubt a more than two independents would be willing to offer supply and confidence. (I don’t think we’ll see the cross-bench offered ministries or a formal deal this time, if the lessons of 2010 are anything to go by.)
The top 20 flippers is getting more colourful. There are six Coalition seats with a reasonable chance of going to the ALP. Casey was at 6% just a fortnight ago, now 40%.
With people voting as we speak, it will be very interesting to see if this momentum shift can continue – or whether the media will find a new narrative?