By Dr Colin Jacobs
The Coalition have by all accounts had a poor week culminating in a new housing plan and re-emphasising Nuclear Australia. We will see this week whether this leads to any reverse of the trends in the polls, but for now the needle has barely shifted:
Our predictions for seat numbers and the next parliament are also only changed more or less within the random error:
There have been a few changes to the top 20 seats in danger of flipping, but down around the ~6% margin mark where small changes in the national figures, combined with a little random error, could push some seats in or out:
In the coming days we’ll do a deep dive into the likely make up of the crossbench, and also a look at what the gambing odds say about our model’s predictions.