Houses have represented more than just a roof over the heads of generations of Australians. Since Menzies encouraged the parents of baby boomers to aspire to become “little capitalists” through home ownership, the policies of Labor and Liberal have culminated in record levels of unaffordability.
Their simple pitch told people that if they worked hard, they could buy a home that would grow in value over time.
However, for millennials and younger voters, the pact has broken down. Market-distorting tax concessions are driving house prices beyond the reach of first time buyers, and now skyrocketing rents are creating a new class of voter: the angry renter.
Their frustration is justified. Rents have skyrocketed by 38% since the pandemic and a shortage of properties removes any power to negotiate over prices or conditions. Renters are witnessing their landlords accumulate property and wealth, enabled by politicians catering to investors at the expense of people needing a home.
But as their power in the housing market shrinks, the growing contest for their vote is providing renters with an opportunity to flex their muscle at the ballot box. Adam Bandt has declared the Greens to be “the party of renters” and vowed to hold the government to account for soaring rental costs. To date, state and federal governments have resisted the Greens calls for rent caps and freezes, countering with promises to stimulate construction of new homes to increase supply and reduce prices.
Their challenge is that these policies will take years to bring down rental prices, and people are feeling the pain now. So, as we move towards an election where millennials and gen Z will outnumber baby boomers, how could the angry renter reshape our political landscape?
What we found:
The median electorate comprises 25% renters, which means that half of Australia’s 151 electorates have more – some significantly more. This cohort votes progressively, with every additional 1% of renters in an electorate translating, on average, to an additional 0.8% to the combined Labor and Green primary vote.
It seems renters have recognised that they have little to conserve, so don’t vote conservative. This is clear when we order electorates by the number of renters, with the first Coalition-held seat coming in at number 26 (Herbert). Labor and the Greens share the top 10.
| Electorate | Renters | Incumbent |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 51.5% | ALP |
| Melbourne | 46.6% | GRN |
| Brisbane | 45.7% | GRN |
| Parramatta | 43.8% | ALP |
| Griffith | 42.1% | GRN |
| Kingsford Smith | 41.4% | ALP |
| Solomon | 41.1% | ALP |
| Macnamara | 39.9% | ALP |
| Reid | 39.1% | ALP |
| Grayndler | 38.5% | ALP |
| Wentworth | 37.4% | IND |
| Fowler | 37.2% | IND |
| North Sydney | 37.0% | IND |
| Adelaide | 36.6% | ALP |
| Blaxland | 36.2% | ALP |
| Bennelong | 35.9% | ALP |
| Watson | 35.5% | ALP |
| Perth | 34.7% | ALP |
| Higgins | 34.4% | ALP |
| Barton | 34.4% | ALP |
| Lingiari | 34.1% | ALP |
| Lilley | 34.1% | ALP |
| Chifley | 34.0% | ALP |
| Swan | 33.7% | ALP |
| Canberra | 33.6% | ALP |
| Herbert | 33.5% | LNP |
A cursory look at the news or social media shows the political parties – particularly Labor and Greens – are grappling with the growing political influence of renters. From National Cabinet’s “Better Deal for Renters” to ill-temped parliamentary spats, the contest is heating up to win over these voters with vastly different visions for the future.
While the Liberals are late to the party, there appears tripartisan acceptance that seats will change hands if even a small minority of renters are angry enough to change their votes.
Interactive: how the “anger factor” could shift seats
To visualise how angry renters could influence the upcoming federal election, we have developed a simple experiment.
If we accept that a proportion of renters are angry enough to defect from the major parties to the Greens (and direct their preferences as the seat has done in the past), we can quantify how angry they need to become before the Greens start to win seats.
Applying our model to a hypothetical electorate with 30% renters, at an anger factor of 10%, there will be 3% of voters mad enough to change their vote from Labor or Liberal to the Greens.
Move the slider to see how angry renters need to become to flip the seat.
*In this scenario, we assume that independent and third party seats remain with the incumbents.
You will see the first seats to change hands are three cornered contests – Richmond and Higgins. Both are currently held by Labor, albeit with very low primary votes: 28.8% and 28.5% respectively.
Next to fall are inner city seats, including Cooper, Macnamara and Perth; again, all currently held by Labor.
Our analysis suggests the Greens are prudent to elevate the plight of renters through the 47th parliament. In prioritising these issues, they are forcing the major parties to undertake a radical rethink of the housing policies they present.
All of this suggests that renters are poised to be a decisive constituency at the next election. If there’s any truth to the Greens claim that renters won’t forgive the Albanese Government for its response to record price increases, they are well positioned to make gains in 2025.