The October 7 attacks and subsequent war in Gaza have stirred deep feelings all over the world and Australia is no exception, with few aspects of Australian public life completely unscathed by the conflict. To say that opinions on the topic are deeply felt and sharply divided is quite an understatement. Many organisations, for good reasons or bad, have tried to walk a middle ground, but have found that their constituencies unsatisfied or downright furious with any equivocation.
Politics, of course, is where this is most keenly relevant. The Labor government have tried to toe the line of supporting Israel without quite giving them complete carte blanche to flatten Gaza, but their failure to wholeheartedly condemn Israel’s bombing campaign (let alone acts such as abstaining from UN votes calling for truce) has been seen by many, especially in the Muslim community, as giving tacit approval to genocide.
Many MPs will be wrestling with both their consciences and party rooms as this bloody war continues. All politics is, of course local, and for those that have a significant Jewish or Muslim constituency getting the balance right will feel more politically existential. The anger towards Labor in the Muslim community in particular is boiling over, with Victorian and NSW Muslim organisations taking the extraordinary step of boycotting government Iftar dinners, urging their members to stay away. This rift is heart-felt and sincere and will take a long time to heal. But will there be electoral consequences?
Labor’s vote is strong in the Muslim community. Of the 15 federal seats with greater than an 8% Muslim population, Labor holds all of them (and the next one is held by Dai Le, an independent). There is significant correlation between the number of households identifying as Muslim and the Labor primary vote:
However, it's in the more marginal seats where the incumbents might be a little concerned. There are 14 seats where the number of Muslims exceeds Labor's margin. Of course, it would be silly to suggest that the entire Muslim population of a seat would en masse and to a person shift away from Labor; for a start, they would to find a better option somewhere else. But in a seat like Bennelong, held with less than a 1% margin, even a 3% Muslim population disaffected with Labour could make the job of retaining the seat harder if there is a swing against the Government.
| Electorate | ALP margin | % Muslim households |
| Gilmore | 0.17% | 0.30% |
| Lingiari | 0.95% | 1.20% |
| Bennelong | 0.98% | 3.20% |
| Tangney | 2.38% | 3.40% |
| Parramatta | 4.57% | 10.50% |
| Werriwa | 5.82% | 16.00% |
| Bruce | 6.59% | 13.80% |
| Holt | 7.12% | 10.70% |
| Macarthur | 8.53% | 9.80% |
| Wills | 8.57% | 10.30% |
| McMahon | 9.49% | 13.80% |
| Calwell | 12.39% | 23.80% |
| Blaxland | 14.94% | 31.70% |
| Watson | 15.10% | 25.10% |
The seats where the percentage of Muslim households exceeds Labor's margin. Click for the numbers.
With Peter Dutton at the Coalition helm, Labor may well take solace in the fact that the opposition are likely to be seen as less appealing to most Muslim voters, regardless of what Labor says or does on Palestine. However, among the above-mentioned 14 seats, one may be different, as there the ALP are competing with the Greens instead of the Coalition. Could this one issue prove decisive in this seat?
Wills
On paper Wills is not very marginal, with the Greens needing an 8% swing to take Bob Hawke's old stronghold from Labor's Peter Khalil. However, it would be a brave Labor who took Wills for granted. In the past, they could count on a primary vote well over 50% and a two-party preferred (2PP) result in the 70% range. Labor's hold on the seat has been steadily weakening, with the primary now in the 30s and relying on Liberal preferences to get the over the line at the last hurdle.
if the Greens mount a serious campaign, supported by the tailwind of demographic change, it's not hard to imagine them getting back to the high water mark of (now Greens' state leader) Samantha Ratnam's 2016 result, when a 11% swing brought the margin to under 5%.
With Brunswick now Greens heartland territory, the ALP relies on the "hipster-proof fence" - the different demographics of the seat's north - to hold the line. As the map below shows, the seat's Muslim population are concentrated in this region, which represents untapped territory for Greens' gains. The Greens primary vote at Brunswick East Primary school in 2022 was 47%; at Fawkner Primary School it was 14%, with the ALP on 44%. There's a lot of room for growth there.
So, should Labor indeed fear that this issue is a vote-changer -- and the iftar affair suggests it might be -- they will be leery of Greens campaigners shaking hands and knocking doors north of Bell Street. If the Greens put up a strong candidate and campaign intelligently in the North, we can expect to see a Labor-aligned independent (or two) running to bring back some of the lost first preferences back to Labor.